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Uber Initiation:

Geographic Expansion and Uber Eats to Drive Bookings While “Other Bets” Create a Wild Card for Growth

Published July 1, 2019

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • We see UBER benefiting from a significant increase in its installed base via geographic expansion and broader adoption for Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) offerings. We project bookings growing at an annual pace of 25% plus through 2021.

  • We expect the company’s adjusted EBITDA margin to remain negative through 2021 but improve after a peak loss year in 2019 as UBER benefits from greater scale. We currently model UBER to be free cash flow negative through 2022, with profitability in 2023 (2024 on a GAAP basis).

  • We believe UBER shares offer a free optionality on autonomous vehicles, as UBER is investing heavily and we note ridesharing service providers will be among the earliest adopters. Competitive pressures from developers of this technology (e.g. Waymo, Tesla and Apple) pose a potential risk to UBER’s long term business prospects.

 

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