We expect the company’s adjusted EBITDA margin to remain negative through 2021 but improve after a peak loss year in 2019 as UBER benefits from greater scale. We currently model UBER to be free cash flow negative through 2022, with profitability in 2023 (2024 on a GAAP basis).
We believe UBER shares offer a free optionality on autonomous vehicles, as UBER is investing heavily and we note ridesharing service providers will be among the earliest adopters. Competitive pressures from developers of this technology (e.g. Waymo, Tesla and Apple) pose a potential risk to UBER’s long term business prospects.
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