The online food delivery market is seen growing at a five-year annual pace of 15%, with platform service providers offering significantly greater growth potential.
We currently forecast that logistic providers will capture about 45% of the online food delivery market through 2024 but see the ability for this figure to be considerably higher as the pandemic has significantly improved the brand recognition and ecosystem for providers.
The pandemic has clearly accelerated adoption, and we see potential bookings rising by multiples in the coming decade for industry leaders, partly driven by an expansion on their addressable market.
For 2021, tougher comparisons pose a risk in the year ahead and acknowledge that there is likely significant pent-up demand from the consumer to get out to a restaurant once the pandemic subsides.
A potential change in driver classification, as well as factors that could lead to pricing/commission changes, are the biggest risk to industry leaders.
We expect both DASH and UBER to be the biggest beneficiaries from growth in the meal delivery space, while GRUB likely remains a share loser (but will still see good growth given industry dynamics).