Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid vaccine candidate with an interim efficacy of more than 90% could be a game changer, but there will be a continued need for Covid testing throughout 2021 and beyond.
There are three main types of tests: molecular, antigen, and serological. The use case is different for each test type.
In the first half of 2021, we expect the Biden administration to accelerate the ongoing expansion of manufacturing capacity for antigen (i.e. rapid) tests, which will predominantly be used to facilitate the return of students to classrooms and employees to workplaces.
By mid-2021, we anticipate a surge in demand for serological tests as researchers and companies use them to track public health and the performance of approved vaccines.
Meanwhile, we expect demand for molecular tests, the mostaccurate and widely used type of test so far, to continue to outpace demand through at least mid-2021.
Diagnostics manufacturers are not only benefiting from the sales of tests themselves, but also from heightened orders of expensive diagnostic systems that will drive recurring revenues for years to come, even if Covid-19 is eliminated. We see positive implications for large diagnostics companies with strong molecular diagnostics offerings, such as ABT, BDX, DHR, HOLX, PKI, QIA GY, ROG VX, and TMO.
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